STUDIES:   

663/

“Concern about police violence, as measured by Google search queries, is associated with elevated rates of homicide and other violent crime” & “[A] standard deviation increase in search activity… is associated with… a 10 percent rise in homicides.” (@MannMarcus)

Is There a “Ferguson Effect?” Google Searches, Concern About Police Violence, and Crime in U.S. Cities, 2014–2016 Is There a “Ferguson Effect?” Google Searches, Concern About Police Violence, and Crime in U.S. Cities, 2014–2016 Table 1 displays the results from a fixed effects negative binomial regression in which Google search activity from 2014 and 2015 is used to predict variation in homicide rates and all other violent crimes within the 43 cities in our sample. Most of the variation in these crime data is across cities, not within them. However, the Google search variable is a significant predictor of within-city change in both models. The incidence rate ratios indicate that every standard deviation increase in search activity during this period is associated with a change in homicides by a factor of 1.1—in other words, with a 10 percent rise in homicides Table 1 displays the results from a fixed effects negative binomial regression in which Google search activity from 2014 and 2015 is used to predict variation in homicide rates and all other violent crimes within the 43 cities in our sample. Most of the variation in these crime data is across cities, not within them. However, the Google search variable is a significant predictor of within-city change in both models. The incidence rate ratios indicate that every standard deviation increase in search activity during this period is associated with a change in homicides by a factor of 1.1—in other words, with a 10 percent rise in homicides
Is There a “Ferguson Effect?” Google Searches, Concern About Police Violence, and Crime in U.S. Cities, 2014–2016
Socius: Sociological Research for a Dynamic World
Gross, Neil / Mann, Marcus
Vol. 3, p. 237802311770312, 2017
10.1177/2378023117703122
Thoughts?
Comment on this study on its Twitter thread.